This is a question which i found very simple but the solution was so tricky. Lets see if you guys can come out with the solution :
There has been a fare in your town where there is a very popular contest namely lucky winner contest. The rule of the contest states :'You will be given three closed vessels in which you know there is a 100 rupee note inside exactly one of these vessels and in other two there is nothing. You have to choose the one with 100 rupee note to win the contest'
You tried your luck and select one of the three vessels, but before you could open it to know if you win or loose, the contest master deliberately picks out a remaining empty vessel and shows that there is nothing in it. After this, the contest master offers you a chance to switch the vessel you chose with the remaining closed vessel.
Now the question is should you stick to your choice or should you switch the vessel in order to maximize your chances of wining the contest?
" the contest master deliberately picks out a remaining empty vessel "..here in lies the catch i feel..stick to the original vessel as it is the right one..!!
ReplyDelete@gaurav
ReplyDeleteDo not use your intuition, better let your common sense do this job. :)
HINT : Its all about probability.
You should switch and not stick to your choice.
ReplyDeleteHere is WHY??
Initially when u picked up one, your probability to win was 1/3 and hence the chances to loose was 2/3. So the chance that one of the remaining vessels has the note is also 2/3.
With the help of the contest master (who knows which vessel has the note, and thus is able to show one of the remaining vessel which does not contain the the price), you get to know which one of the remaining vessels is incorrect. Now you also know which one of the remaining vessels could be correct with a chance of 2/3.
Conclusion: You should switch vessels, which doubles your chances to win...
PLEASE REPLY in case its not clear... As i was also confused in the beginning.